“Prince Caspian” was released just over two years later to a disappointing $55 million opening weekend in the US, gradually earning just under $420 million worldwide. A princely sum – pun absolutely intended – to be sure, but far short of expectations.
How will “Voyage of the Dawn Treader” compare to its predecessors? Speculation has begun.
Over at Box Office Buzz, VDT is currently estimated to open in US theaters with a $40.1 million debut weekend (see the right sidebar). Their projection has increased in the last few weeks, although the “number crunching” the site uses is largely a mystery. For example, do they include a multiplier for 3-D ticket sales? How are these figures calculated without knowing a final theater count? Regardless, BOB came pretty close to predicting Harry Potter’s open.
And the IMDb Box Office Message board has this thread, titled “Chronicles of Narnia Predictions.” Contributors seem to have more faith in VDT’s performance, but of course these are nothing more than educated guesses, emphasis on the latter. Remember, “Prince Caspian” was expected to open to $70 million+ in US theaters.
Other points to ponder:
* How will VDT will hold up over the holiday season? LWW did quite well against the competition; PC faded fast.
* How will non-US markets respond to VDT? The film should benefit from its considerable release in India, and opens in several other countries next week, so we’ll know pretty soon.
* VDT’s performance in the UK will also be interesting to watch – PC’s box office in that region was 77% lower compared to LWW.
* Will the faith community respond to VDT as they did to LWW?
* Will marketing continue its current pace and/or pick up steam? I have seen a few TV spots on various American cable networks, but non on top-rated FoxNews, where I should think there is an audience for this type of film (corporate synergy, folks!) While I haven’t seen any roadside billboards, two people – one in Michigan, one in Texas – have mentioned seeing them.
Specifics aside, lets hope for box office earnings that match the time and effort invested to produce the film – and will be sufficient to keep the franchise going.
UPDATE: Gregory Ellwood at Hiflix hints that early tracking on VDT is strong. In particular, that the film and “Tron: Legacy” should “rule December.” Read his article here.
On the other hand, BoxOffice.com’s week-old projection shows VDT opening at $35 million.