Walden Media is one of the few film companies out there today which consistently puts out quality family films (“Narnia,” City of Ember, Bridge to Terabithia, Charlotte’s Web), but unfortunately, few of their films have made enough money to warrant being called true successes. The first (and perhaps second) “Narnia” movie was box office gold, but Terabithia, Charlotte’s Web, and a few others make only moderate amounts of money and some Walden films are downright flops (City of Ember, The Seeker). Now, Disney in effect wants to cancel “The Chronicles of Narnia.”
The reason Walden Media refuses to let go of the Narnia franchise (the reason they are still looking to make The Voyage of the Dawn Treader) is because the Narnia movies are the only Walden films that have made blockbuster money. Only one non-Narnian Walden movie has grossed more than $100 million domestically and no non-Narnian Walden movies have made more than $225 million worldwide. Walden is afraid that, if they let go of Narnia, they will go under. This is very likely. They need Narnia because not only does it keep them afloat, but also because the Narnia series has massive potential to rake in the big bucks.
And 20th Century Fox may very well be willing to pick up the series. Fox’s number one movie this past year (Horton Hears a Who) made less than $300 million worldwide. Their number one for the previous year (The Simpsons Movie) made $527 million worldwide. Their number one for 2006 (X-Men: The Last Stand, which cost around $200 million between production and marketing) made $460 million worldwide. And all of these films were marketed appropriately and released on a date conducive for that sort of film making money. Prince Caspian, which we all will certainly agree was marketed poorly and given a bad release date, made very nearly what X3 did worldwide (and X3 was considered a huge success). The Voyage of the Dawn Treader will almost certainly make more than $460 million if it’s released in December 2010. The fact that the gross will probably be higher coupled with the fact that the production budget will be reduced to $140 million (which is less than X3’s production cost) leads me to believe that Fox might be interested.
Fox, unlike Disney, seems to be pleased with moderate successes and Narnia has the potential to be far more than moderately successful. If Fox picks up the option, it might just be a perfect fit, financially speaking. After all, the”X-Men” franchise can only go so much farther and “Star Wars” seems to be all over (at the cinema anyway). Fox, like Walden, needs (something like) Narnia. Even still, the distributor that potentially picks up the franchise has to be careful with Narnia, as it has to be made and marketed just right (not just for established Narnia fans, but for the general movie going public). But, given the right circumstances (which can mostly be controlled by the distributor), Fox and Narnia could work well for one another.
Agreed. Dawn Treader is a better story, one that probably lends itself more to repeated viewing than Prince Caspian. (PC may be the only book in the Chronicles that I have only read once.)
And Dawn Treader is a good candidate for Fox; not only is the basic plot stronger, it is often cited as a favorite of the series behind LWW. From a production standpoint, a lot of the work has already been completed…script drafts and pre-viz…which should also work in its favor. So, too, should a lower production budget.
Regardless of who picks up DT, marketing will be key. Some of the decisions made on PC were just puzzling, especially not utilizing “street teams” and avoiding a faith-based marketing component. Those methods were used for LWW and helped build awareness.
I agree that Fox and Narnia would do well together, but I am dissappointed that the budget will be lowered. The Voyage of the Dawn Treader is a much better and exciting story, therefore it should be made with higher standards. Walden Media, though, seems to do an excellent job with all their movies regardless, so The Voyage of the Dawn Treader will probably be satisfying no matter what.
Fox absolutely must take up this opportunity. Narnia films must go on, and it must happen now or never.
Don’t be afraid to run with these films, Fox! The Chronicles of Narnia are not flash-in-the-pan silly movies. They’re classics, and they’ll be loved and appreciated long after they stop playing in theaters.
Agreed! If Fox can make good family movies like Horton, then they seem a good candidate to tackle Dawn Treader!
Speaking of the budget; Yes, it is lower than Prince Caspian, but $140 million is plenty of money to make a fantastic film. In fact, I thought the budget for Prince Caspian was a bit indulgent and wasteful. They did not put all of that money onscreen – which is a shame. The Lord of the Rings only cost around $300 million total to make – that’s all three of those films for $300 million. If they could do that, I don’t see how Fox and Walden shouldn’t be able to make a mind blowing version of Dawn Treader.
you are correct, $200 million to make PC was fairly wasteful, but considering that LWW make almost $800 million worldwide, Disney probably saw no reason to go all out on PC. I think a lot of the budget had to do with shooting and transporting the filming crew around the world – in fact, there were shooting scenes so remote that the whole crew had to be airlifted by helicoptor every single day, which I am sure bloated the budget.
I dont think you guys understand whats wrong with Fox. Yes its made some profitable movies. However, it has tainted so many properties i cant even pretend I respect their company. You used X-men the Last Stand as an example of a profitable movie. It’s quality was terrible. First thing Fox does is make it so Bryan Singer cannot direct because of his decision to film Superman Returns. Second they bring in Matthew Vaughan (good idea) but rush him into production. So what does Vaughan do being the smart director he is? He leaves. The only good thing he is able to do for the film is cast Kelsey Grammar as Beast. So now the property is without a director so they bring in one of the worst directors: Brett Ratner. He does not respect the movie at all whatsoever. And the movie is no good compared to the first two. Now they are in the process of disrupting the distribution of one of the most anticipated movies of 2009: Watchmen. They had a great property and they could have made the film whenever they wanted but they didnt. So Warners Bros decides they can do something with it. And they r actually doing well with it. I think that it will be a great film if Fox doesnt mess it up first. If they get ahold of it, they could take a 3+ hours movie and shave it down to 2 hours so ‘more people can see it’ because that makes sense. I dont trust them any further than i can throw them. If Fox picks up Narnia, the end result will not be what you hope for. I promise you that.
Don’t get too optimistic. Eragon was a modest success and Fox gave up from it… Still I hope that Fox will make VoDT…
Eragon was a joke of a movie. It didn’t follow the book more than it followed it, and further, the source material was horrid.
Everyone was looking for a Harry Potter killer, and Eragon was thought to be it. I don’t think Eragon was successful at all, since it only grossed $100,000,000.
After taxes, that $100,000,000 looks more like $60,000,000. And then, we talk about Walden wanting $140,000,000 to make VoDT. Past movies pay for salaries, and future movies. Eragon could not support the production of VoDT.
What we should hope for is that Fox is open to doing this movie, has the budget (and willingness to cancel something else, since the economy is in bad times), and that they don’t look back on their previous works with Walden and think badly.
I think that in an economic crunch, it is touch and go, but calling Eragon a success is just..not what movie companies expect. They expect profits higher than that. If Fox can see their way to around $100,000,000 profit, they might do this.
I think there is some confusion. Walden Media is making the Narnia Movies no one else has the rights to do that. What Fox will do is help co-finance and distribute it nothing more.
Let me re-emphasize the first part of the first sentence…Walden Media is one of the few film companies out there today which consistently puts out quality family films (
Yo no temo que FOX arruine la pelicula, ellos no estaran involucrados, Walden Media la creara y FOX distribuirla, si alguien arruina la pelicula ese seria el director,Michael Apted auqnue no creo, el tiene experiencia y ha hecho buenas peliculas, apoyo a que VDT podria seguir con 20th Century FOX…
No. Fox is wrong. I can’t remember a movie of recent years that was even close to satisfying. Fox is messing it all up. Eragon was the worst fantasy movie ever. If they get hold if the Narnia-Franchise it is very likely that they miss it up as well. OK, we would get another movie, but a very bad one. It wouldn’t be something special. A movie without magic.
Take Eragon. The Movie cost 100 Mio, made 250 Mio at the box offices world wide. This would be considered ok, but not worth to make another one. The book was cut in an unacceptable way. The only things that remained were the beginning and the end. Imagine they cut the whole islands-part if VotDT. That would destroy the whole movie.
Fox would be good if you wantet to see another movie. It will be poison to the franchise and to further installments. There are a lot of problems that I think Fox can’t handle. I’d rather go without another installement than watching Fox messing it all up. I’m not positive with that idea. Not at all.
Just checked. The TOP 10 Movies of Fox:
1 Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace 1999
2 Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith 2005
3 Star Wars 1977
4 Independence Day 1996
5 Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones 2002
6 Home Alone 1990
7 Return of the Jedi 1983
8 Night at the Museum 2006
9 X-Men: The Last Stand 2006
10 Cast Away 2000
The only movie that is any good is “Night at the Museum” of 2006. All in all, Fox end up at #6 of all major Hollywood Studios:
1 Warner Bros. 18.4% $1,752.5
2 Paramount 16.4% $1,561.8
3 Sony / Columbia 13.2% $1,258.1
4 Universal 11.0% $1,044.0
5 Buena Vista 10.4% $989.6
6 20th Century Fox10.4% $987.9
7 Lionsgate 4.6% $434.0
8 Summit Entert. 2.3% $223.0
9 Fox Searchlight 2.2% $211.7
10 MGM/UA 1.6% $149.3
I’d rather see Warner, Paramount or Sony taking on this Franchise. The only big franchise Sony is parent of is SpiderMan and DaVinci-Code-movies. Terminator to an extend. I think, Narnia would be better off with Sony or Paramount.
Buena Vista would be great, too. Buena did the overseas distribution of LWW. So they are familiar with the matter!
I disagree with your assessment of the top 10 Fox movies having “Night at the Museum” as the only movie that is any good.
I actually own the ENTIRE Top Ten List on DVD, and love all of them (save for Cast Away, which I enjoy but rarely watch). I’m a HUGE Star Wars fan (yes, including the prequels), and Home Alone was directed by Chris Columbus (director of Harry Potter 1 and 2), with John Hughes writing. I dunno.
Also, Buena Vista = Disney. It is a Disney company.
LOL… I have to agree with Paul to a degree. I actually thought that Night at the Museum was one of the only ones on that list that WASN’T any good. That one, X-Men 3, and Independence Day. I really like Home Alone and the Star Wars movies.
Well, I was rather referring to movies of last. Fox’s time is over. X3 was bad, Ind. Day ok but too long ago. The movies of last were quite stupid in story.
Refresher: X3 cost $210 million, just made $459,256,008 worldwide…
Actually, I’ve spent all day looking things up and trying to find out how a movie that made $419,000,000 in gross could be cancelled.. and then I found an answer.
Basically, here’s how it works. A studio gets around 80% of the gross in the first week, and that works its way down to about 30% by the sixth week. The rest go to theaters. For the sake of estimation, most people suggest to say it’s 50-50, to studios and theaters. That means the studio, in the case of Walden, earned $219,000,000 , and spent around $200,000,000. What this means is that the second movie likely earned around $19,000,000. But wait.. this was kind of a dual production deal, with Disney putting money into it.. and they get paid FIRST. Also, Disney was distributor.. which means they get between 5 and 10% of the gross.
Now you see the problem. Prince Caspian didn’t make a profit if Disney funded the majority of it.. it lost money.
But that’s not just all there is to the equation. You also have theaters. They want to make money too. They don’t want the movie to die off after the first week.. they want to see it through to the sixth week and beyond, when they can make a lot of money.
So it comes down to a two pronged approach for movies to be successful enough for theaters and studios to take an interest. They need to BANG out of the gate, but they also need to make it solidly enough to the ten week mark.
And that’s why Caspian got cancelled. The trick is between net and gross profits. A studio nets half of its gross , and in the case of Walden and Caspian, you also have to subtract Disney’s advance and the distribution fee.
I’d suspect Caspian didn’t make money when it was all said and done for anyone except the theaters.
The 3rd narnia movie did not get canceled at all. Disney just won’t have anything to do with it. As long as Walden Media finds a studio to help fund it and distribute it the series will continue.
Let me refresh the point i was trying to make Walden Media has full rights to the books. They will choose a distributor help co-finance the remaining films and to do market the films. Who ever they pick will only have rights to distribute and market the film nothing more. That means fox, WB who ever they pick can not touch the film and make it their way cause they do not have rights to do that.
That’s semantics, though.
When you don’t have the funding to make the movie, and the company that has funding does not wish to make the movie, then the movie is in a state of flux. Perhaps cancelled is too strong a word.
The point still remains. That’s why $419,000,000 wasn’t enough. Because half of it (on average) goes to the theaters, and the remaining goes to the studio. Both theaters and studio need to make money. In this case, it doesn’t sound like there was enough to pay Disney for the distribution and to repay them for budget costs.
Sorry to interrupt here, but if you haven’t read the “open letter” from a Disney Mom concerning Disney’s dropping of VoDT, you are missing out.
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/la-et-narnia1-2009jan01,0,3925428.story
I don’t care who makes the rest please just make them!!!! For Narnia!!!!!!
Hmm . . . I can see why Disney got cold feet but they have made a serious mistake. Family consensus after watching the Prince Caspian DVD was that it was a good, rather than great film. Rather too much cash thrown at it I fear.
Lowering the budget may well bring out the best in the VODT production whoever makes it – by focusing on script and character development rather than having a ‘lets find the most expensive location’ competition. To make an historical comparison, Star Trek I (The Motion Picture) in 1979 cost a fortune and was mediocre. Star Trek II (Wrath of Khan) in 1982 was made on a shoestring budget and was a thumping success, easily the best film of the series.
And I would look forward to more surprises like the one in PC where Skandar Keynes wields a broadsword with a degree of violence and attitude that you really do believe he was once a King of Narnia !
I think Fox should prehaps go with narnia.some of there movies are good. trouable with people like warner bros they have harry potter to cocentrate on.i guess we just have to wait and see
You know… I always thought it would be cool if MGM/UA realeased Narnia ( mostly because of the logo) but they are involved in The Hobbit.
That would be pretty awesome, with the logo being a lion. They could use Aslan!
this is a perfect match … fox isnt afraid to go for gold and even if they only get silver which is unlikely in this case they do have a respect for getting a story out there not just based on making millions but doing a job and doing it well.. i say go FOX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! marketing if done as well as harry potter should make a big difference. heck i didnt even know PC was coming out or did i understand the trailer to be narnia. thank GOD i am a fan of narnia and figured it out. but what about all the people who know nothing of narnia. its a great story. mel gibson gets to make movies about god. this is even better . etertaining and captivating story with hidden teaching. not brainwashing. so onward and upward … come on fox take on the whole 7 books of narnia!
A word of caution here: Fox distributed Walden’s “The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising,” a movie that was a travesty of its source book and flopped at the box office. Walden has made some fine movies, such as “Holes,” “Terabithia” and “LWW,” but their track record is by no means flawless, especially where Fox is concerned.
I think that would make them more cautious about changing future books to suit themselves. If they don’t learn from past mistakes, they don’t grow as a company.
One would certainly hope so. Walden has a great mission and I wish them continuing growth and success with it. I brought up “Seeker” for two reasons: 1) Given the failure of that big-budget fantasy venture (which scuttled another potential franchise), Fox may be reluctant to pony up the bucks for VDT, and 2) I suspect the Narnia series is too dear to the hearts of most people here to want to risk Walden-Fox NOT learning from their past mistakes!
Don’t forget FOX also did a horrible job with Eragon…the first book was decent but the movie was crap (so if they were to continue with the series it would run a whole different course(the elves didn’t even have pointed ears!)). Walden did a great job with Holes! It followed the book perfectly, but probably because they got the orig author of the book to do the screenplay…I just hope FOX follows the book and markets it well, because it’s my favorite of the series including The Horse and His Boy and The Last Battle.
Actually, Fox is doing the film with Walden Media. And the C.S. Lewis Estate is still very much involved. So no worries!