Dawn Treader takes in $81 Million Overseas!

December 12, 2010 Paul Martin The Voyage of the Dawn Treader Movie News 41

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader has taken a number of shots this week, ending in what looked to be lackluster domestic box office numbers for the opening weekend.  While final weekend numbers don’t come in until late Monday, the overseas estimate is looking very good.  So good, in fact, that the combined opening weekend take will be north of $100 million.

Let’s hope that it continues this trend and that positive word of mouth goes far with the domestic box office as well.

According to the LA Times:

Fox executives were prepared for a weak start as many fans were left with a sour taste by the poorly received “Prince Caspian, though they had hoped it would at least top $30 million,. The studio picked up the “Narnia” series after Disney dropped it following “Caspian” and produced and marketed “Dawn Treader” in line with “Wardrobe” in hopes of recapturing at least some of that original movie’s success, particularly with Christian audiences. Together with co-financier Walden Media, it spent $155 million to produce the film.

In good news, those who went to the new “Narnia” gave it an average grade of A-, according to market research firm CinemaScore. With good word-of-mouth, the movie could easily sail to a little more than $100 million by the end of the year, a so-so run for such a costly picture. But the early foreign results indicate it could generate more than $250 million overseas, where 3-D family films are very popular, making for a hit on a worldwide basis.

If this trend continues, the film could accumulate over $350 million worldwide.  This would put it a bit behind the take of Prince Caspian.  However, this also would also mean that it is generating quite a bit of profit, and that is before home video and download sales and rentals.  Things are looking good to me!

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41 Comments

  1. Great post! Instead of being depressed about the poor domestic opening I have been encouraged to take action. I have called almost all the people in my address book to tell them about the film and I have passed out filers in my church. If Narnia Fans will show up in theaters and give the film great word of mouth, I think we could help this film become a long term success. Fans will need to take action to help promote the film so that it can do better than its poor opening would suggest.

    What did you think of my most recent post about 10 things fans can do to ensure the film is a success? Does this have a good approach to the problem and does it send the right message to fans? I wanted to encourage fans to get out and see the movie as well as promote the film.

    • I did like it, in fact, as soon as I posted it to the facebook page, it took down our server. 🙂 One person commented that it was kind of a “scare tactic marketing” thing. I remarked that I didn’t think that was your intent. I did like the steps, however. And I appreciate that you’re doing all that you’re doing to promote the film.

  2. I won’t be worried about Narnia’s success until closer to dvd release. I think that releasing it so soon after Harry Potter was a mistake, and with so many other “big” films coming out in the next week(s) (Tron, True Grit, Yogi Bear, etc…), people pick and choose what they see more carefully. I did happen to see that number about the overseas profits on yahoo movies, and that’s somewhat encouraging. My question is: with so much publicity and marketing for Dawn Treader in the U.S., why didn’t it do better?

  3. See? All hope is not lost! Domestic gross does not tell the whole story people!!!!!!!!!! Yippee, Silver Chair, here we come!!!!

  4. Maybe when we give our word of mouth we can say it’s already made over 100 million worldwide. America I’m I little disappointed. But in these fan forums we are only preaching to the choir. We love Narnia. But there are people who haven’t read the books or know these masterpieces. They need to know from us fans, not the critics who aren’t very nice at times. Thank-you for your work Narnia Fans.

    • Actually, it already has made more than that! $81 million overseas + $24.5 million in the US = $105.5 million so far!

      Another thing to remember is that almost all the marketing for the movie clearly said that the movie is “Coming this Christmas.” So a lot of people probably don’t even know that it’s already out!

  5. I’m soooo glad! i was soo worried. i just saw it today, and it was amazing! It totally ranks up with the 1st one!

    • What did you think of ~~~the green mist~~~. To me, If they didn’t have that in there, I would’ve LOVED the movie!

      • I know that it wasn’t directed at me, but I have to say, I don’t mind the green mist at all. I look at it the same as the Dark Island in the book. This strange island of evil that appears out of nowhere in the Narnian world… wherever it came from, the green mist must have come from the same place.

        • That’s why I have a problem with the green mist “wherever if came from”. We have no idea where the mist or the island came from, what the ‘great evil’ was. I would almost have prefered the leaked script idea of having the LOTGK behind it (though low-key).

          I went to VODT with a friend who has not seen the other movies and hasn’t read the books in years. When, after the movie, I explained how in the books they were simply searching for the lords and there wasn’t green mist or seven swords or anything, she looked at me, bewildered, and said “That would have made so much more sense!”. So it’s not just fans who got confused.

          • The problem with doing that is huge, though. If they were only searching for the seven lost lords, as they do in the book, the audience doesn’t have an emotional connection to them. We need to have a reason to go that will connect the audience with the characters on the journey that is more than just finding the seven lost lords along the way.

          • I honestly did not mind the mist. I wish that the movie could have been more along the line of the books, but my family and I think that the movie was REALLY good!!! It Was a bit confusing.. but the way the atmosphere was was opposite of that in Prince Caspian, so we’re good!

      • I DO NOT LIKE GAEL OR THE MIST AT ALL! The seven lords was ok, but you have to admit that the best parts of the movie were the parts they got from the book! and you have to admit that the cheesiest were the parts that they COMPLETELY made up! That happened to me too Lirenel, I came out of the theater and told my friends that the seven swords, Gael and the green mist were made up… And they couldn’t believe that such a big part of the movie wasn’t even mentioned in the book!

        • I have not completed my review yet, because I am having a hard time writing it with so much going on. However, it’s already at over 1000 words. That being said, I thought Gael was a good way for Lucy become a role model. The mist, I see as a Screwtape Letters sort of character.

  6. Does this mean in places (Rest of world) where it has had less marketing focus it has done better overall?
    If Narnia’s there for the general public over the holidays -perhaps like big adverts in the movie sections of the film posters in newspapers kind of thing rather than the shorter long term wham bam t.v. adverts hype approach, it can still make a big blockbuster bundle just in a different way?

  7. I had a feeling it would be coming around by Sunday evening. Well done to all Narnia fans who have been boosting the sales up worldwide and within the US. Sorry for all of you stuck in the snow blizzard. I’ve lived in New Jersey my whole life until I was thirteen. So I know where all of are coming from.

  8. Hey you all guess what! Dawn Treader made top of the box office for the weekend! Harry Potter has went down to fourth place.

  9. Yeah, according to most sources I’ve read, at the moment Dawn Treader has a gross of $105,500,000 worldwide! That is only $45,000,000 short of the budget at $150,000,000 but I am sure that won’t be for long! I am so proud that this has happened. FOX even admitted that this film has “resurrected” the franchise and they were “excited” on it’s money making meaning they will most likely greenlight another film! I am so excited myself I am shaking! I just got back from seeing Dawn Treader and I was amazed and very happy with what I saw. Everything was incredible! Definatly an improvement since Prince Caspian in my mind! Woot!

    • Making back the $155 million budget will be a nice start, and that should happen soon. However, before everyone gets too excited, let’s remember that they will have to give around 1/2 (or somewhere very close to that) of the gross profits to the theater owners who show the film. Plus, the film also had a $100 million advertising budget that needs to be made back. This means that the film most likely would need to gross around $410 million to break even (155 x 2 + 100 = 410). So $150 million, and not even $350 million, will do it.

      I still have hope that it will make a profit in the end, but let’s face it, if we look at the figures honestly, this will still be a difficult (though certainly not impossible!) thing for this film to do at this point. Let’s just do what we can and hope for the best. Even if it doesn’t do all that well, perhaps The Silver Chair will still get made, just with a smaller budget.

        • Mike: I was worried about that too! I mean if we get peeps in the theaters then that will be a lot, but will the people buy the movie on DVD? I am questioning if I should buy it or not!

      • I’ve done a bit of research into this over the last 10 years because of all of the movies that I’ve been tracking, and found stuff written by people that have owned theaters. I’m not sure how it might have changed in the last 30 years, but I do know that theaters don’t take half. That number would only make sense if the theaters contributed to half of the budget of each film that they exhibit, from a business point of view.

        Either way, if you do a bit of research as to why concession stand prices are so high, it’s because that’s where theaters make money. Here’s a comment from someone that once owned a theater.

        “When I owned a theatre 30 years ago, the distributors had either flat rate percentages or what they called 90-10 deals. In our case is was 90-10-1500. The deal was each week of the run they would take 90% after the first $1500 house nut or weekly overhead. But there was always another percentage of 70% or 60%. Whichever was greater was what they took. So if the film never earned the $1500 nut, they would take 70% of whatever it did gross. Hence my line of when a film makes money, the studios make the profit. When a film loses money, the theatres take the losses.”

        • Well, I hope you’re right. I’m not sure that what applied 30 years ago for one theater would apply universally in 2010 (at least I’m sure the “$1500 house nut” would be much, much higher now). Regardless of this, though, there are numerous fees and taxes, especially overseas, that the studios have to pay to have their films shown. I don’t know if Fox made some special arrangements for this film overseas, but typically studios receive a smaller portion (sometimes drastically) of foreign profits than they do domestic. There is no way the studio is getting the sort of percentages for the foreign box office that you mention. That’s one of the reasons why so much attention is always focused specifically on the domestic box office. This is something to keep in mind too.

          Out of curiosity, how much do you think it would need to make to turn a profit?

          At any rate, here’s hoping it does well enough, regardless of whatever specific amount of money it needs to make.

      • I do not know the current figures, but theaters used to keep only 10% of the tickets. This is why food and drinks are so expensive in theaters; this is their profit. The movie is to get you to the concession stand.

        After the theater we have Distributors Gross. The distributor, Fox, then gets a cut. What is left is Producers Gross and should be more than 50%. This is split between the production company, Walden, and the studio, Fox, by agreement. Fox gets two cuts.

        I think that everyone will be smiling if box office is $350 million. Fox and Walden make a profit, and we get another movie.

  10. very well done I give it an A Grade, we watched it on 3D here in the Philippines…Pinoy, please watch this very well executed movie, storyline, effect, cinematography, instead of witchcraft why not teach the next generation, Goodwill & self-belief.,, here’s to $500 Million gross, we are counting on all Christian worldwide!

  11. I loved the movie it does deserve all these veiws I went to go see it this weekend and my grandmother started crying when Reepiceep went over the wave and I almost cried when they had to leave for good from Narnia :'(

    • I was crying uncontrollably at the end! Even though it might have been different from the book, it still had that emotional pull to it in the last scene.

  12. Paul, thanks for this article. I think that we have to challenge all those that want GOOD family entertainment to stand now or forever keep their peace. WE can always get mindless entertainment, but Narnia is much more. If VDT fails it will be a long time before we see good family entertainment.

  13. I wonder if the blizzard in the midwest and cold and rain in the east had anything to do with the numbers this past weekend.

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