“Dawn Treader” Nears $300M Worldwide [*Updated]

January 2, 2011 Mike Narnia Film News, The Voyage of the Dawn Treader Movie News, Twentieth Century Fox, Walden Media 115

Results from New Years weekend box office are beginning to surface.

Through Sunday January 2, VDT is estimated to have earned $87.1 million domestically.  In international markets, Fox reports via Deadline Hollywood that VDT stands at a cumulative $210 million.  Add that up…

…and VDT stands at $297.1 million worldwide.  This total is better than many expected when the film opened poorly in the United States.  However, movie attendance will slow down considerably this week as many school vacations are over.  On the other hand, VDT has yet to open in Argentina and Venezuela (two small markets) or China or Japan (two larger markets).

Keep an eye on NarniaFans for updates.  In the mean time, check out this interesting piece at Deadline Hollywood about 2010’s movie attendance and whether or not studios should cut down on the number of 3D films.  Note that movie attendance was down from 2009 throughout the year – meaning snowstorms aren’t the culprit behind disappointing returns for multiple films.  Although – they didn’t help!

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115 Comments

      • Until you hear something official from Fox or Walden, there are no plans for The Silver Chair at this time.

          • No one told you you could not hope. Hope all you want. It still remains that TSC is not in production, and that hope doesn’t pay production costs – past or future.

          • and I BELIEVE they will make all seven books- even if some end up straight to video- which wouldn’t even be a bad thing if that way they felt safer to be true to the books.

          • @Mike: Haughty, whiny remarks don’t pay production costs,
            either. I think I’ll stay an “annoying, glass-half-full
            type.”

        • they already said things are looking good a couple of weeks ago when there was less gross. I feel it in my bones, kids! Remember, THEY think its important to continue. so they are looking for the least excuse to be able to continue.

  2. Totals would be much higher if VDT was playing in 2D… I would have went more often (as would a handful of friends) but VDT was only playing in only 3D at local theaters – very frustrating. Please make SC in 2D only and save production money!

      • To keep getting repeat viewers, $5 extra each visit is too expensive, esp. within the faith community. As a target demographic, church faithful aren’t going to repeat spending 40-50% more/ticket – why the 2D option is so important. (I am a pastor, church of over 1000 near Philly). We do have large theatres Oaks Regal 24, Rave, etc., but it’s not even in some theatres.

        • And also people who can’t see 3-D (like me). they aren’t going to want to pay the extra for 3-D if it’ll look bad! that really stinks!

          • Good point. Read the story at Deadline Hollywood. It mentions problems with having so many 3D movies, including that some people can’t “see” them and aren’t going to pay extra.

          • perhaps it means the faith community is more prudent with extracurricular spending, as opposed to the secular, let’s keep up with paris hilton crowd

      • The original point Bob, is that theaters have stopped showing it in 2D and only offering it in 3D. They are shootinhg themselves in the foot – losing money – by only playing the 3D version. Hurting their chances for future prodcutions. Nobody wants to see the rest of the Chronicles produced more than me but they are not helping the casue by putting all their eggs in the 3D basket. These stories do not need 3D if done well…

        • Yes, our Cinema only showed it in 3D. I was really disappointed – I am not a 3D fan! I did go to see it twice though.

  3. yaaaaaa! I just want them to make the next film! And for narniafans everywhere to not be considered stupid for liking the films!

    • YES! 😀 If this were a facebook, I’d have clicked the like button immediately! And on the other hand they have no reason to frown at these movies, because neither was bad. Yeah, maybe PC was a bit disappointing, but it was hard to make a sequel as good as the first movie, not even speaking of a better one. And VDT is only lower at the box office because of storms, and a weaker prequel. And if you note the way the box office has been going for Narnia day by day, you’ll realize the average week-day gross was growing, from 1 million, to 3 million last week. So more people started watching the movie as it got known. May that be a sign for Fox and Walden! Sry for a bit of a lengthy post =)

      • No problem. But more people went to almost every movie because they or their kids were on vacation. Look for huge drops beginning tomorrow (January 3).

    • I agree. We shouldn’t be considered stupid for liking anything, any more than a Harry Potter fan should be considered stupid for liking those films, or a Lord of the Rings fan be considered stupid for liking those films.

      • agreed! You can say that you don’t like a movie that someone else does, but you shouldn’t call them stupid for liking it!

      • those poor ignorant souls don’t understand narnia is not just kids stuff, it has great deeper meanings and references. i suppose it helps the haughty feel more superior, however misguided they may be.

  5. We took our church youth group to see the film. Can you imagine the increase in numbers if every Anglican congregation (as well as others) took their youth groups to see the films?!

  6. I was so impressed with VDT. I didn’t like Prince Caspian much, but the LWW and VDT were great.

    • yeah, i think they really went too far in making PC so dark. you can portray darkness has crept in without drowning the viewer in it.

      • I thought that VDT was darker than PC. probably b/c they still had fun times in PC but in VDT it was like all temptation. DON’T GET ME WRONG- i LOVED VDT and would go see it again if i had the money. I’m just sayin’

        • i wish they would portray more fun times and bonding in all the narnia movies, but i quess im just old fashioned.

  7. He just said it wss looking good. He didn’t say it was official. Personally, I agree. It looks like there’s a good chance they’ll make The Silver Chair. Just a chance, nothing official.

    • NARNIAWORLD- hey that would make an awesome theme park! how about it, universal? or at least a ride? (you missed the boat, disney!)

        • disney had narnIa for 2 movies, they could have made a section of disney world into NarnIa. Or made a “dark ride”, like Peter Pan’s flight, based on Narnia. they had a small exhibit @ disney world, just showing some clips. i was surprised they didnt do anything bigger with it at the parks.

  10. Atleast it’s gotten a lot more than what it looked like it would. THAT in itself shows Fox it’s “worth it” to do the films.

    • See my comment below. Films are made for profit, not box office ranking or doing better than expected.

      • yeah, normally yes, but this team has an evangelistic agenda with this series-

        • Link? I’m anxious to see who at Walden and Fox have said they will keep making films even if they lose money because they have an evangelistic agenda.

          In reality, Mark Johnson and Doug Gresham have repeatedly said the series will continue based on finances – not evangelism.

          • yes, they must make enough to break even or better, but i bet they won’t get greedy about it and would continue even with out a HUGE profit- just enough profit IMHO

  11. BTW, it’s still on top isn’t it? ALL other movies are doing bad as well right now(according to box office mojo)so it’s not VDT that’s doing “bad”, it’s all movies in general. This just isn’t the best time for movies.

    • VDT is not on top of anything. Doesn’t really matter if the business is down across the board – the studios still invested $150 million plus to produce VDT, and they won’t consider moving forward with the franchise unless they make a profit.

      • Well, if all movies are “losing” money right now, but VDT is on top for so long, then they would want to make the enxt one hoping it was a better time for movies because they would expect it to also be on top. “on top” can be almost as important as how much they make, shows them most people “favor” to watch VDT over all the others.

        • All movies are not losing money right now. Where on earth did you get that from? Harry Potter is doing quite well profit-wise.

          No studio is going to care if they have a film that’s #1 if the same film ends up costing twice its financial return. What member of the production team or cast is going to forsake a paycheck so they can say “Well, at least we were #1 for a week!”

  12. i hope we can grossing 500 millon worldwide as i can see the flim it’s taking popularity and in japan and china is not out yet, at least i’m happy cuz’ here in peru the movie was more popular than harry potter and tron together (for the record i saw the movie 6 times and 2 of them people clap), so i hope we can see silver chair an the rest of the books I LOVE NARNIA TOO HARD!!!

  14. I think we are looking at 400 million at best. But I think that that number will all but guarantee a greenlight on The Silver Chair. I figure the film will do about 25 million in Japan, about $15 million in China (although more would be nice, and I think it has another 15 million left in the US.

    If those numbers are correct the film would need about 50 million from the rest of the market to achieve 400 million. Very tough, but certainly possible.

    • yeah, i think they are getting realistic about the sequels numbers. I can’t fathom why they had such high expectations for PC>

      • Considering that there are only about 130 films that have ever grossed over 400 million, 400 million is pretty awesome!

  15. If the dynamic of Narnia is learned from this episode as to how Narnia’s natural fit is gaining it’s audience, i don’t see why the other four films can’t be made with big returns as far as big profit goes & how that even another 100 million or more could be steadily accumulated, as not all but a decent factor at least of it’s success, will be due to strength other than the marketing, or at this stage the marketing is right but stretched thin yet still having relatively great returns perhaps.

    But the maker’s behind the films would have to remain enthusiastic not letting the creativity go stale & quality down also, and that could be a factor in not getting all seven as i’m sure it’s a real saga involved in trying to make each successive Narnia film as good and successful as they can be in the fickle blockbuster stakes. That would be a perfectly legitimate reason in not having anymore films too (say Magicians Nephew dir by Michael Apted & Silver Chair by P J Hogan – well that’s just me thinking how interesting that would be) made also, and still, anyhow, got a superlative & distinctive Narnia trilogy now that really brings it all to life with lots to enjoy:)

  16. Good news!!!!!!!! I went and saw VDT twice…and want to see it again! 🙂
    Doug Gresham seemed hopeful for SC didn’t he? And…they have to make it after what Alberta Scrubb said to Eustace at the end of VDT! “Eustace! Jill Pole has just dropped in for a visit!”

    • They don’t have to make it. It means nothing to non-Narnia fans, and doesn’t mean anything to us, except that they messed up the beginning of The Silver Chair already.

      • I’m not sure how they messed it up. All that was mentioned was that Jill Pole was there, not in what vicinity. Plus, Eustace clearly knows Jill from school. The conversation that they had at the beginning of the book can occur in the same way.

    • I’m sorry… WHAT?! When Pole was mention? In the movie?! I haven’t notice! Well, I watched it with Polish dubbing (and only once yet) but… Is there any extra scene after ending or something?

      • no, Mrs. Scrubb yells at Eustace to “Come down, Jill Pole has come for a visit!” at the very end of the film when they ( lucy, edmund and eustace) just get back from Narnia. Its really cool

  17. PAUL MARTIN…I went to the Narnia Exhibit in Hunstville the other day…If I were to write a “review/report” about it, would you use/need it?
    Blessings,
    For Christ Alone (Anna…yes, my name is really Anna and it’s not just an Anna Popplewell fan thing LOL! 🙂 …in Alabama)

  19. And continues to do well here in the southern hemisphere were we are still on our long summer break. Kids go back to school during the last week of January

  21. Narnia is way better than any other movies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It is way better tha Harry Potter, Avatar, or evan The Titanic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NARNIA IS AWESOME!!!! IT IS SO EXCITING!!!!!!!! IT IS AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!! EVERYTIME I WATCH NARNIA I FELT OR FALL IN LOVE WITH NARNIA!!!!!!!!!!! AND ALSO EVERYTIME I WATCH IT…I WHICH MYSELF TO BE IN NARNIA, OR TO ONE OF THE PEVENSIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I <3 NARNIA!!!!!!!
    🙂

  22. The only place I saw advertising for VDT was on my Narnia sites on line! I don’t know why they didn’t do massive advertising on television…I actually know people who didn’t know it was playing!
    I sure hope they keep making the series! I’d love to see what they do with “A Horse and His Boy”!

  23. “VDT is not on top of anything. Doesn’t really matter if the business is down across the board – the studios still invested $150 million plus to produce VDT, and they won’t consider moving forward with the franchise unless they make a profit.”

    They will make a profit. If it duplicates Caspian’s overseas number of $278 million and earns $108 million in the US, that’s a worldwide total of $386 million. Both numbers are doable: The Princess and the Frog earned $104 million last year and Dawn Treader is already $2 million better than that pace. Dawn Treader has also performed better than Caspian in Asian markets, so between Japan and China, you can expect a combined total of at least $40 milion, possibly up to $50 million. Factor in DVD and TV, and you have a nice profit.

    • That’s a big “IF” at this point. With the holidays over, box office returns worldwide will drop off quite a bit. VDT’s performance in Japan and China remains to be seen. I think your $40M estimate is about right. As for other markets, most are simply too small to make a big monetary difference.

      With a production budget estimated at $150 million and marketing costs estimated at $100 million, the total investment in VDT is $250M. Using the general rule of thumb for a box office split between theaters and the studios, that equates to needing $500M in box office receipts to break even. I can tell you now that will not happen. The momentum simply isn’t there and the opening numbers were too weak.

      If – another big IF – VDT “sails” to profitability, it will be thanks to home video. Unfortunately, DVD/BD sales are down in general and tend to follow box office returns anyway – meaning VDT will likely sell fewer DVD/BD units than “Prince Caspian.”

      My guess is that when all the money is counted, VDT will break even – meaning the decision about whether or not to produce “The Silver Chair” will be a tough one.

      The ironic thing in all of this is that if VDT’s budget was $100M, as Disney allegedly proposed in 2008, all of this debate would be a moot point – VDT would be much closer to profitability.

  24. One interesting thing to note is that compared to PC, who’s total cost was 400 million (225 production + 175 advertising) and who’s worldwide take was around 420 million, VDT has made more as a percentage of cost worldwide than PC already, with it’s total cost of 255 million (155 production + 100 advertising) and a worldwide take of about 273 million (+7% as opposed to +5%). (These numbers are according to Box Office Mojo) One should also note that PC made about 71 million in DVD sales, and we should expect a decent take for VDT as well…

    • Once again, comparing VDT to PC is apples to oranges. The foreign release schedule for PC was much different than for VDT. PC had a staggered release, so the returns trickled in all summer. VDT had a bigger upfront release, so of course its going to look better by comparison.

      Unfortunately, PC didn’t come close to LWW’s DVD sales, and I fear VDT won’t come close to PC. We shall see…

      • VOTDT is probably the biggest Narnia hit overseas then any of the previous two, all things taken into account it’s a huge hit internationally. A Major chunk of the marketing would have gone into the US & Canada markets, and it’s exposure over seas won’t be the equal of the previous two Narnia films. It’s been ahead of Tron in the U.K. the last two weeks!

        In the u.s & canada markets, a good proportion of the audience that sees films like Tangled, Harry Potter, Yogi Bear is a Narnian audience too if it had been reached. If the money hadn’t been spent, a re-booted gentle non-adrenaline & persistent marketing campaign in the u.s & canada would be making the film loads in those markets. Why?

        I don’t believe people are fundamentally different in the ‘international’ markets, and is probably a blessing that can’t afford ‘Big’ advertising, as it is the small type of advertising that is generating returns that would be of envy to other films. The draw back of situation being it is so sparse & not able to maximise full potential of correct approach, but still really impressive all the same. Whatever it’s placement, the Narnia dynamic is clearly one of a horse chaffing under the bit in reaching widespread enjoyment rather than that of flogging a dead horse to a finish line i think.

        • Again, this is a dollars and cents issue. Fox/Walden make business decisions based on how much money the film makes, not how high it ranks or whether or not it beat “Tron.” Worldwide, VDT will not come close to LWW’s total – VDT is not the biggest of the three films. When all is said and done, box office receipts for VDT will probably rank third compared to LWW and PC – even with 3D premiums factored in. But remember that ticket prices are higher now than when those films came out, indicating the audience for Narnia films is shrinking. The challenge for Fox/Walden, if they continue the franchise, will be how to reverse that trend.

          • err, we are having different conversations lol
            while what you are saying is fine, it is not stand alone from the pov i expressed, & thus mis-leading if meant as definitive statement(s).

          • sorry mike but I think you’re wrong I don’t think the Narnia movies are losing interest in the public and the goal is to reverse it, I think it has a very very bad marketing, narnia hearing, as you can see it, in foreign countries not is in the U.S. and this has always been a very volatile market and difficult to recover, because I’ve seen it before and i don’t know if this comparison serve but I also i’m a fan of britney and recover has been difficult but she was successful again with a good marketing, so much, that she had the most successful tour of 2009 in USA and the world beating lady gaga’s tour, so i think they should get closer to people with other advertising warmer and attractive like give flyers in schools or free gifts to children or a good coverage on successful tv programs that just simple trailers and posters and events that were not in strategic locations, an example here in Peru the movie was extrenly successful nearly 800 000 in just 4 days that is to much for this country and I suppose there will reached 4 million and only comparable with avatar people was talking all mounth of this movie and that’s because they did a very nice article in a popular program on television

            so I think they had to use more their heads on a good marketing for the movie also don’t make people wait to long for another movie because people lose contact and interest, and to be honest fans were who will take care to say that the movie was good and was in theaters and all the ridiculous 100 million was spent on music videos with singers with no much popularity, when the real successful marketing is the most simple and cheap just be creavite next time.

            and well I hope we raise more money I pray that we can get around 500 million as total gross and i will be more sure of the continuation of the movies and the faith is never lost

          • yojar – ticket prices are higher, but VDT is making less money than PC in the US, Australia, the UK…moviegoers vote with their wallets. They’re losing interest. And its not just Narnia – Harry Potter has the same trouble. Those movies do well, but oddly enough, the “biggest” HP film so far was the first – none of the sequels have outgrossed it.

  25. I think anyone has told this yet but VDT has already opened in Argentina. It was last Tuesday. And it’s available both in 2D and 3D. Usually the opening day is Thursday but, as last week was especial, they changed it.
    It’s great to hear good news about it!

  26. With Dawn Treader now sailing over the 300 million mark worldwide, the next test will be how well it floats during January. I should like to see how it performs in China and Japan, and if it can scrape by 100 million domestically. Who knows? It could top out beyond Caspian, but there might be additional blizzards, earthquakes and all manner of other distractions to derail it, I shouldn’t wonder!

  27. maybe disney was right about only budgeting 100 million for production costs after all-

  28. I LOVE IT! My brother and i saw it! There were lots of people in the movie!

    I cant wait for the sliver chair coming.

  29. enough debating, let’s pray that Narnia movies will continue. That’s as much as we can do at this point. Farther up and farther in!

  30. I hope “The Silver Chair” can made because I don’t want to stop making this series on a film witha cliffhanger. Aslan told Eustace he would be coming back, so they need to at least make “Silver Chair” like the BBC series did and then see where Fox and Walden can take the films next.

  31. It seems so odd, nobody I knew watched PC, but EVERYONE seems to have seen VDT. If the japan and china releases combined were to exceed $100 million then it could easily outsell PC. But that’s a small chance.

  32. Well I am supporting it with three people on tuesday, and maybe 2 more. I so hope they make the silver chair!!!

    It was too bad they changed to much of Caspian movie from the book, and made it all about the fighting scenes. Huge mistake actually. And now I hear they pinch this to a christian audience? Thats not very clever the way they handled this whole franchise IMO.
    Oh well I am really looking forward to tuesday since the trailer seems real good and this will be the first #D movie I see! And I will always remember the pictyre in the book where the ship sails out of the painting I was so amazed by that as a kid, and I am hoping for the same amazement now! LOVED the book!

  33. I really liked Dawn Treader. I hope they make the rest of the books into movies. Unfortunately the trend is clear that each subsequent movie generates less revenue than the previous one. If the pattern stays the same maybe Dawn Treader can pass the $100 million mark in the U.S. and eventually worldwide it might break the $350 million mark if there are still places it hasn’t been released.

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